2013-2014 NBA Season

2013-2014 NBA Season

To spare all of you the same information being shared on Yahoo, ESPN, and every other blog, this is meant to be a quick and simple read. We will cut out all of the lottery teams, and stick with our playoff predictions for both conferences, as well as a few award predictions at the end. Let me just say that picking 2 of the top 4 teams in either conference seems like a coin flip. It will all come down to matchups. Lets see what we've got: 

WEST: (Regular Season Seeding)

1-Los Angeles Clippers: I don't think they are the best team out west, but do think they will have the best regular season schedule. 

2- Houston Rockets: I'm mostly excited to see this lineup: Beverly (who is much better than Lin and will eventually be the full time starter), Harden, Garcia, Parsons, Howard. 

3-Oklahoma City Thunder: This all depends on when/how Westbrook comes back. 

4-San Antonio Spurs: Hard to know where to rank them in the regular season, and their 4th seed doesn't reflect my belief that they are still the best team in the west. 

5-Memphis Grizzlies: Also a really great team, that could finish anywhere including 1st, but one of these teams will finish 5th. 

6-Golden State Warriors: This is the safe bet, but Jazz fans wouldn't mind seeing a train wreck in the Bay Area this year. (Jazz own their 2014 1st round pick). 

7-Dallas Mavericks: I actually like them, as long as Calderon and Dirk are reasonably healthy, they should make it.

8-Portland Trailblazers: Decent Starting 5 and a bench with some NBA players on it this year. I think they'll surprise. 

Other teams/notes: I have learned to never bet on the Timberwolves, that is why they've been left off. I think the Clippers might be tough, as long as they don't play the Spurs or Memphis, who I think are bad playoff matchups for them, they might make the WCF.  

Western Conference Finals: 

-San Antonio Spurs V.S. Oklahoma City Thunder

West Champions: 

-San Antonio Spurs

EAST: (regular season seeding) 

1-Chicago Bulls: Derrick Rose looks back to being his old self, and Coach Thibs tends to play his starters playoff minutes during the regular season. 

2-Miami Heat: They don't really care probably, but they might have another league best record if they are motivated to win games by another all-time win streak. 

3-Indiana Pacers: New and improved bench, these guys are serious contenders for a championship.  

4-Brooklyn Nets: Here by default. Like the Spurs, I don't think their regular season record will reflect their playoff scariness.  Yes, scariness. Nobody wants to play Pierce and Garnett in the playoffs with a good surrounding group. AK47 is the piece nobody is talking about that I think puts this team on a new level. 

5-Atlanta Hawks: Aren't they always a 5 seed? I like them. But they aren't contenders.  

6-Washington Wizards: Spoiler Alert: I secretly think Wall/Beal is my favorite backcourt in the NBA. Add in some other decent players and I pick them as the surprise team of the year.   

7-Detroit Pistons: Poor shooting but maybe Dumars is right, just throw out 5 good ball players and maybe they'll make it work. 

8-New York Knicks: I don't think their team is any better, but Carmelo automatically gets them here.

Other teams/notes: Let me just ask this, is there a lineup in the league, that would legitimately be on the floor together in the history of basketball that is bigger than the Nets rolling out 1-Livingston 6'7/ 2-Johnson 6'9, 3-Kirilenko 6'11/ 4-Garnett 6'11/ Lopez 7'0?  Would love to see that.  Another team I could see making the playoffs if the Cleveland Cavs.  Just not sure I trust Kyrie AND Bynum to stay healthy all year. Also, Toronto could surprise and be in there.  

Eastern Conference Finals: 

-Brooklyn Nets VS Chicago Bulls

East Champs:

-Brooklyn Nets

FINALS: 

-San Antonio Spurs VS Brooklyn Nets

NBA CHAMPIONS: 

-I can't pick. I want them both to win. I want the Spurs as redemption for last year, and the Nets because if they're healthy, holy hell have you seen that roster? I'll pick when the regular season is over.  

Awards: 

-MVP: Chris Paul. He will be the sexy vote if the Clips end up in 1st like my prediction states. 

-DPOY: Lebron James, No MVP trophy means he wins this instead. 

-MIP: Patrick Beverley. Hes my "odd how much I like him" player.  

-6th Man: Danny Granger. Who knows? 

Playoff Predictions

WESTERN CONFERENCE:

Oklahoma City Thunder VS Houston Rockets:

This is going to be an up and down series. Although it may be fun basketball played at a breakneck pace the Rockets only shot is to get incredibly hot.  I'm going with the sweep
OKC wins 4-0

San Antonio Spurs VS Los Angeles Lakers:
There is a lot of talk about this series. Many people are thinking the Lakers may put up a  fight in this series and I think they can win a game or possibly two, but I don't realistically buy the idea the Lakers can beat a Spurs team that is dialed in, especially without Kobe.
Spurs win 4-2

Denver Nuggets VS Golden St. Warriors:
I just really like how the Nuggets are playing. I feel like Coach Karl has that team built perfectly and they have bought into his system there.  There is no way that Golden St. wins in Denver so I can't go with GS. Might as well take the time to throw this prediction out there: Stephen Curry will be an MVP at some point, and go down in history as the greatest shooter of all time. However,
Nuggets win 4-1

Los Angeles Clippers VS Memphis Grizzlies
This series is a toss up. Flip a coin and pick one. This has to be the most exciting series in the first round.  Count on game 7.  The animosity between these two teams, and last years 7 game series makes it that much more intriguing. I'm going to give this series the edge for "Most Flagrant Fouls" AND "Most Flop Fines." I think its coming down to that last game, and I'm going to pick the road team
Memphis wins 4-3

2nd Round:
Oklahoma City Thunder VS Memphis Grizzlies:
A rematch of the awesome conference semi-final 2 years ago.  I think this series will be much more interesting than people would expect.  That said, I just can't go with Memphis. OKC is too good. I do think it will go 7 though,
OKC wins 4-3

San Antonio Spurs VS Denver Nuggets:
I'm most excited for this potential match up than any other playoff series this year. These are two teams that I love to watch, with great coaches. I may be the minority here, but
Denver wins 4-2

Conference Finals:
Oklahoma City Thunder VS Denver Nuggets:
I'll say this, if Gallinari was healthy and I knew for sure Lawson and Faried were 100%, I was prepared to go with Denver to win the west. I really was. I just think Gallinari hurts them just enough that they won't be able to beat the Thunder. However, because of Denver's home court strength, I think it still goes 7.
OKC wins 4-3

EASTERN CONFERENCE:

Miami Heat VS Milwaukee Bucks:
There is nothing I can say here that wouldn't be obvious.
Heat win 4-0

Boston Celtics VS New York Knicks:
I am intrigued by this match up and I really think Boston could win. I am hesitant to pick them though. I want to, but I just feel like that is the NCAA March Madness mindset lingering in my brain. 
Knicks win 4-2

Indiana Pacers VS Atlanta Hawks:
Although I do like the Hawks quite a bit I think the Pacers are going to be tough. Coach Vogel will have them dialed in with a solid gameplan.  The Hawks are much more watchable than in years past, but I don't think they have a playoff run in them.
Indiana wins 4-1

Brooklyn Nets VS Chicago Bulls:
I love this match up. Especially now that Deron Williams seems to be back to himself. Having seen him here in Salt Lake for many years I know what he is capable of come playoff time. The Bulls have an amazing defensive system thanks to Thibodeau but I have to go with my gut on this one,
Nets win 4-3

2nd Round:
Miami Heat VS Brooklyn Nets
As much as I like D-Will I can't imagine the Heat losing in the 2nd round to anyone. Not with Lebron. Again, not much to say that isn't cliche or obvious here.
Miami 4-1

New York Knicks VS Indiana Pacers
This is getting redundant but this could be another great one. I like the match ups for both teams and once again think it might come down to a few lucky plays, bounce of the ball, or some officiating (unfortunately) but  I have to go with the Pacers.
Indiana 4-2

Conference Finals:
Miami Heat VS Indiana Pacers:
There will be a lot of speculation when Indiana pulls out one of those first two games in Miami, but then that will just be a wake up call for the Heat,
Miami 4-2

NBA FINALS:
Oklahoma City VS Miami Heat
The rematch. I will spare you all the obvious information you will see on sportcenter during this time, but suffice it to say I feel it could go either way. I'm going to go with the slightly less popular pick (I really wanted to pick Denver) and go with OKC in 7.
OKC wins Championship 4-3

(For the record, I picked OKC over Miami at the beginning of the year, so I'm sticking to my guns)

Jazz Season in a Nutshell

That last game pretty much sums up the season for the Jazz. High hopes, disappointing outcome.  There seemed to be no real sense of urgency or intensity until the Jazz found themselves down 20.

The first play of the game set the tone. Randolf takes a pass 14 feet from the hoop, to which Al Jefferson, the Jazz supposed best player, turns, looks, and.......doesn't do anything.  Randolf misses the jumper but the message is clear. The best player for the Jazz just let the world know that this game didn't matter enough to even try to make a close out, put a hand up, or even go box out.  The Jazz coral the rebound and continue about the game. No damage done on that one play, but can't help but wonder if your best player putting forth that kind of effort to start the game sets things up for everyone else.

Here is a "breakdown" of the roster in this season's "breakdown":

Al Jefferson: Plain and simple, if this guy is playing 30 minutes a night you are going to be a mediocre defensive team at best. He can put the ball in the hoop, but is that even worth the predictability it takes to get him those possessions? He might have the worst defensive instincts I've ever seen a player of his caliber have.  To have been in the league 8 years and play the minutes he's played either tells me that he is unable or unwilling to learn to play defense.  I'm really quite blown away at the amount of points he was responsible for. If there was a stat that could measure "defensive breakdowns that led to easy buckets because of one players inability to defend" (or even try) I'm 100% positive he would be the Michael Jordan of that stat. I'm just not convinced in any way that if Al is the center piece of your team, you can be a contender.  

Mo Williams: Is he the answer? He's one of those guys that seems like the answer after a good game and seems like a curse after the bad games.  He misses a lot of games every year and is pretty inefficient.  For a guard who likes to get out and run, he sure does make terrible decisions in transition.

Paul Millsap: His improvement through the first 5-6 years of his career made everyone believe he was headed for great things. He is a skilled player, but lets be honest; he has peaked.  He should be a 3rd big on a playoff team and I would love to see him in that role for someone that has a shot at winning a title.  He just isn't good enough to be a reliable high level starter. He got outplayed more than not this season.

Derrick Favors: Gifted defender that can score some clean up easy buckets and on the pick and roll but that is about it. I don't think he will be like Al Jefferson in the post, which most fans seem to compare him to, but really is that what we want him to be? Honestly, I think he's good to go right now and should have been starting a long time ago.

Enes Kanter: He's 20 years old and has played basketball for like 5 years. He'll be pretty darn good.

Randy Foye: He is a shooter no question. He was misused though. He isn't a go to option, especially off the dribble. He is one thing and one thing only, a spot up shooter.  He needs to be the guy off the bench that comes in for a bit and stays in if he's hot, and doesn't if he's not.

Jamaal Tinsley/Earl Watson: See ya. Thanks for being such great locker room leaders and admirable people but you're both old and unreliable as a back up point guard.

Jeremy Evans: He just is what he is. I guess he could have been used a bit more as a spark when things got dull, but he's so limited its hard to have him out there for extended minutes. I think he leads the league in "least amount of dribbles" this year at 7.

Alec Burks: Again, I feel was somewhat misused.  He isn't a 1. He can play that for a bit, and I'd prefer him over Earl, but he's most definitely a 2.  He's pretty good. He has an ability you cannot teach nor develop, and that is to get the ball up to the rim where it has a chance at going in no matter who is in the way, or how hard he is fouled. I'm still bitter about the 40 DNP's to start the year. Imagine where he'd be with that extra 1000 minutes.

Kevin Murphy: Hate to say it, but barring a miracle off-season, he will be overseas or in the D-league next year.  Just never looked even somewhat NBA ready in the minutes he got, even in garbage time against other garbage players.  

Marvin Williams: I actually think he is still worth keeping. He has a player option, but I think he was misused big time. His defense was extremely underrated (probably more like unnoticed) but he was very valuable on that end. He doesn't use possessions, turn the ball over, or take bad shots. That was kind of the knock on him, he just didn't really seem to do anything. I still think with a clearer role for him, and a more versatile offense he can be a very good back up on the perimeter. 

Demarre Carroll: What can I say? I saved him for last because he is a fan favorite. He played his butt off in every second of every game. He shouldn't have been reduced to DNP's, especially in some of those games where it seemed all we needed was a spark of energy to wake us up. He reminds me of Kenneth Faried (different positions entirely I know) in that he is limited, but just so active he makes things happen all the time.  I'm not saying he should be a starter but he should be on the floor each and every game at least for a little bit.

Ty Corbin: Where do I begin? The rotations were confusing. The timeouts were untimely. The substitutions were bizarre. The defense was a mess. The team wasn't focused on the road, or ready. They couldn't stop runs. Players were jerked around in different rotations, roles, positions and even just pulled from the rotation out of the blue. The offense was predictable. The end of game execution was horrid. Am I forgetting anything? But it's somehow OK because everyone got along? I don't buy it. He did show some signs of improvement but if the Jazz don't fire him, at least don't extend him before we see how next season goes.

Moving forward I think the philosophy should be to bring in guys that are 2-way players (O and D). Guys that will bring toughness and focus to the point where winning in Toronto doesn't seem like such a tough task. The Jazz should really focus on trying to becoming an elite defensive team. 

Overall, this season ended up pretty terrible. I hate to be so pessimistic but look at the overall picture. We didn't develop the young guys as much as we could have because we were told we were sacrificing some of their time for the older guys. That was supposed to give us some playoff experience (which was supposed to help the young guys).  Now here we are, 9th in the west with no playoffs, the 14th pick in the draft, no identity, and a whole bunch of uncertainty.

Like I said, that Memphis game summed up the entire season.  High hopes, disappointing outcome. 

Problems in Utah?

What comes to mind when you think of the Utah Jazz? Perhaps it is John Stockton and Karl Malone. Perhaps it is Jerry Sloan. You might even think of Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer. Most of us will in some way or another think of an NBA franchise in the small market of Salt Lake City that has been one of the most consistent, reliable, and well-functioning organizations in professional sports.  But is that still the case? Lately fan rumblings and inconsistent play might suggest things in Salt Lake City have never been more uncertain.  Here are some of the concerns we have: 

Let’s start with the play of the team.  It is no secret that the team has issues.  Its logjam in the frontcourt and inconsistent play in the backcourt have caused the Jazz to be left to hopes of Laker losses in order for them to reach the playoffs.  An average offense and a pretty bad defense doesn’t make for a playoff run anyways.

In a recent podcast David Locke, voice of the Utah Jazz, argued that the Jazz have pretty much reached their expectations for the season.  So why are fans disappointed? Although they may still make the playoffs the bottom line is that the Jazz upgraded Raja Bell, Josh Howard, Devin Harris and CJ Miles for Marvin Williams, Mo Williams, and Randy Foye, but have managed to secure a worse winning percentage than last year.  That is strange considering the roster improvements and the improvements from current players Gordon Hayward, Derrick Favors, Alec Burks and Enes Kanter.  David Locke says that the Jazz will have finished about 1 win shy of where they should have, and in this case that win would make a world of difference to their playoff hopes.  But the disappointment may come from the way the team has achieved their record.  The Jazz seem to have barely beaten most of the bottom feeders, and been destroyed by most of the above average teams.  Their point differential is the only negative number by any potential playoff team in the West.  The Jazz record on the road is 12-27. That strange difference from their home 29-11 record.
typically make for an elite team anyways, but the overall season in general seems to have disappointed many fans.

 

Their road woes may suggest a lack of focus and intensity, something that seems strange given the veteran experience on the team.  Some would suggest it may be coaching.  Coach Ty Corbin has taken some serious criticism as of late for his management of the roster.  Ty has indeed made some strange decisions this year.  Electing not to play Alec Burks for the first half of the season, DNP's and minute distribution, playing young players who are supposed to a part of the core very few minutes, and making strange matchup decisions late in games that include not making appropriate and seemingly obvious offensive-defensive substitutions in crucial situations.  David Locke has defended Ty Corbin by asking what else could be done.  What would make Jazz fans happy? Possibly part of the frustration could be that fans believe that the young 4 should have played more because they need time to develop, but also because they make the team better.  So when those 4 young players do not play significant minutes, the Jazz lose out on being a better team, and developmental minutes for their core.  Hayward, Burks, Kanter and Favors have all played significantly fewer minutes than comparable draft picks on other teams.  Oddly enough, Hayward, perhaps the team’s best overall player, has played less minutes per game than last year.  

Another criticism of Ty would be his inability to have a defensive structure.  This is pretty clear and no matter how David Locke might try to deflect any blame off of the coach, their system is broken.  Throw stats out the window and watch them for a quarter and you will know.  They get lost, and confused a lot for an NBA team.  Often times teams will get solid looks all game long by running simple pin-downs and drive and kicks.  It isn’t uncommon to see the Jazz close out 2 players to the same shooter only to give up a better shooter a wide open look.  Needless to say, the Jazz can rotate on one pass, but rotating on 2^nd or 3^rd passes is rarely seen with this Utah defense.   

Their offense is predictable and easy to frustrate.  That is another story for another day, but it’s worth wondering if the post heavy offense is really the way the Jazz should be playing.  The Jazz showcase 3 big minute players that all shoot above 40% from three (Mo, Foye, Hayward).  That’s pretty good, yet they are 26^th in the league in 3FGA.  

Speaking of David Locke.   Recently he called out a writer for SI for having listed the Jazz as one of the biggest disappointments for the year.  He said he felt obligated to call out the bogus report.  I have to say I feel I must do the same to Locke.  Although I have read and followed many of his reports, and understand his closeness to the team, his recent podcast with the SI writer sounded a like a whole bunch of excuse making.  I can’t help but wonder if his closeness with the coach/organization and the fact that his paycheck comes from the Jazz is blinding his ability to see past the numbers he so relentlessly uses to back up his arguments.  I get analytics, and am a huge fan of them to be honest, but in his latest podcast Locke seemed like a bully, hell-bent on shoving “Jazz numbers” down the throat of the guy on the other end, who made great points, but obviously wasn’t prepared with the same amount of information.  Locke failed to see the other guy’s points and observations.  The best point the "other guy" made was that Corbin was obligated to form some kind of offensive and defensive system that will benefit the young core moving forward.  With the offense centered around Al Jefferson for most of the year they have failed in that regard.  David Locke argued that isn't the coaches job and he should only be concerned with winning right now.  That seems like such a stretch given the organizations spoon-feeding to the fans of the "bright future" with its young players. Why convince the fans that the young core 4 are the building blocks of the future, then sit idly by while the coach squanders the opportunity to build anything with them?  

Locke continued to point out that their roster is not very good, and so Ty has actually done a great job.  He basically said that the players 1-12 are all very average.  So here’s two problems: Is he saying that Kevin O’ Connor should be the one to blame for putting together such an average roster, OR, is he saying that the core players the Jazz have drafted aren’t actually anything better than average players?  If so, the organization has some serious explaining to do, since they have convinced the fan base these 4 players are the future of this franchise.

As a twitter follower recently pointed out, Locke has berated Alec Burks several times for giving Jennings the airspace to shoot that 3 in that infamous Milwaukee loss, yet has repeatedly said over and over again the Jazz should foul in that situation.  Yet no criticism of Ty being prepared for that situation has ever been brought up.  In some ways, Locke seems to be using the players to blame them for many of Ty's shortcomings.  

I like Locke.  He is a hard worker that cares a lot about his work.  He is a great employee, but he is just that.  He’s an employee.  His paycheck comes from the Utah Jazz.  Why would he do anything other than try to defend their coach, and organization.  But to say the Jazz haven't been a big disappointment this year is contrary to what their general fan base believes. 
 

The bottom line is that the organization seems to be at a crossroads.  From our interactions with fans on social media it seems that they are much more disappointed than they are content.  Fans are anxious for the new era to begin.  It seems to have been teasing them for two years now and it may be time for the Jazz to turn over the reins to their young core, even if it means a step backwards in the win column.  I'm not sure, but would Jazz fans be more content with this year if they had played the young players twice as much as they have, and ended up 10th or 11th in the west? Its possible. I’m not sure what the answer is, but either way, the important part of any organization is keeping their fan base interested and happy with the product and the direction of the team.  Sure doesn’t feel like they’ve done that this year, no matter what their “employees” say.

 

NBA SEASON UNDER WAY

         With the 2012-2013 NBA Season kicking off, here are a few observations from the first few days of the season, as well as some expectations for the rest of the year (assuming the Mayan Calendar is incorrect).

• Everyone is saying "Don't worry about the Lakers. They will be fine." I'm not convinced. We saw this with the Heat, where they got together, took a while to figure out exactly how to play with each other, and then got on track and look at them now. Here's the thing; The Miami Heat were dealing with 25-26 year old stars. The Lakers are looking at 3 dudes with a lot of miles on their legs, and one guy coming back from back surgery.  If I was a Lakers fan would I be worried? Yes, I would. The Lakers may not have 2 seasons to get this all figured out and rolling. More importantly, the Lakers look slow. I know that they will improve, and I'm not saying they will suck (I still have them as the 2nd seed in the west) but I don't see a championship this year, and if they can't get it done next year, when does the window close? PS-Mike Brown will not be coaching this team much longer. If the media has you on the hot seat after 2 games, you're doomed. How many times have we seen this play out? 

 

• Damian Lillard will be the rookie of the year. Why? 1-He's going to have a great year in Portland. He's getting the minutes, he's getting the ball, and he'll be getting buzz. 2-Because Anthony Davis is the #1 pick, so when he does well its totally expected. And finally 3-Because we tend to like perimeter players more than big men. In their debuts Lillard's 23 and 11 feels far more impressive to us than Davis' 21 and 7.  

 

•  The Jazz are loaded with talent. When 2nd year player Alec Burks doesn't sniff the floor, you know you've got depth.  He's good. (Personally I'd rather see him playing with Foye as the 1 than Tinsley at the 1 and Foye at the 2). Point is, watch out for the Jazz. They've got a deadly combination of big men inside, good perimeter shooting, decent enough defense, and tempo. Not to mention that of all the teams I've watched over the first 3 days (league pass) the Jazz seem to have that chemistry that you notice when you watch them. 

• Russel Westbrook is so interesting. He is so incredibly good, but can really hurt his team.  In our first post, we mentioned someone had asked us who was better out of D-Will/Westbrook. Let me repeat myself. I think Westbrook is a better player individually, but I'll take D-Will any day. If D-Will and Westbrook traded places, would the Thunder be better, and I say yes.  I can think of 7 or 8 possessions off the top of my head last night where Westbrook had Kevin Durant WIDE OPEN, and either didn't see him, or decided he was going to get his look.  What I am really curious to know is if the Thunder fans feel the same way? Thunder fans, were you outraged with Westbrook last night? Here's the thing for me, Westbrook is a star. He helps you win a lot of games. But you don't usually see stars that will also cost your team several games as well, and that is exactly what Westbrook does. If he ever slows down a little, develops some court vision and can manage the offense, team, and game better as a point guard, watch out. 

• James Harden is the real deal. I won't be surprised if he makes the all-star team. This whole time many people thought that he was benefiting as a player from the attention Durant and Westbrook received, and I think we might be realizing at the end of the season just how much Durant and Westbrook benefited from him.  

• Finally, I'd just like to say how great I think this season is going to be. There are so many great players (I dare argue this is the most talented the league as ever been from top to bottom), so many interesting story lines, and many possibilities for the outcome of this season. 

 

West Predictions

 1  Oklahoma City Thunder   
      Reigning Western Conference Champions. Interesting thought: Someone asked me who was better, Deron Williams or Russell Westbrook. I think individually maybe I'd go with Westbrook. Then I asked myself, if they traded teams would the Thunder be better? I actually think they would. I am also a huge Harden fan. He is very efficient (much more so when he isn't on the floor with Westbrook). P.S.-I'm not hating on Westbrook. I think OKC wins the west because they are young, healthy, and  will push for the #1 seed.

    2   Los Angeles Lakers
      One reason: Steve Blake is due for a breakout year. Just kidding, but I think this one goes without saying, however I will mention that nobody is talking about the Antawn Jamison pickup. He's better than people realize. I just think that (if healthy) no one can match up to Pau/Dwight, without leaving Kobe/Nash. The reason I have them below OKC is because I don't think they will concern themselves as much with getting the #1 seed. For this group, its all about the post-season, but they will win a lot of games in the regular season still.

         3  Los Angeles Clippers 
      Chris Paul. Do I need to say more. Every time I watch him play I think to myself "he's the best player in the league." I know that isn't true, but the fact is that he is incredible, and incredibly fun to watch. They are deep too. Jamal Crawford, Grant Hill, Lamar Odom, Chauncey Billups, Eric Bledsoe, Willie Green, Matt Barnes, and I'm probably forgetting someone.

         4 San Antonio Spurs  
      I think they will fall a little bit in the regular season this year, but then again, I've been saying that every year now since 2009. For them, regular season really doesn't mean too much. I still think they are arguably in the top 2 most dangerous teams in the West come playoffs.

           5  Denver Nuggets 
      I feel like if I am going to be way off on any of these it will be that the Nuggets finish higher than 5th.  Something feels wrong about putting them this low for some reason. I have always had a fan-crush on Andre Iguodala.  I love Lawson too. I think they are deep and have one of the best coaches in the league.

     6  Memphis Grizzlies 
      They are still a very good team I think. They have had a year now to let Gay and Randolf work together, I think they can put it all together for a nice fit this year. However, when it comes to the post-season, I am still a little down on them after losing a Game 7 Home game against the Clippers last year. Contenders just don't do that, pretenders do.

              7  Utah Jazz 
      They made the 8th seed last year and have improved so much this year. They didn't get any stars but I'm not sure they need it.  If the West wasn't so good, I would probably have them higher. I could see them beating out the Grizzlies for 6th, but I'll keep my optimism harnessed for now. I love this team though. They seem to already have a great chemistry going. I love Marvin Williams, and think he's going to do much more than he did in Atlanta. Their young guys are improving, and they have a nice mix of youth, experience and depth. Add in good 3 point shooting this year and that changes everything.  My biggest concern heading into the season is Coach Corbin. I have the feeling he will start Millsap/Jefferson, when it should be Favors/Jefferson. Millsap could come off the bench and be successful going against other bench units while being the primary option. Also, it allows Favors to roam defensively as he covers some of Jefferson's mishaps.  I really felt like Corbin did a below-average job last year with the rotations.  Had the Jazz been unfortunate enough to have Bell and Howard stay healthy, I really think Corbin would have continued to play them, and we wouldn't have made the playoffs. I'm giving him this year to prove he can manage rotations and minutes effectively before I start saying we need a new coach though.

                8 Minnesota Timberwolves 
      They just made the most sense to me here. They will have Kevin Love back in 6 weeks or so, they have Brandon Roy on their bench, and Andrei Kirilenko will help them out a ton. They have quite a bit of talent.
I am putting them ahead of Golden St. because Stephen Curry already sprained his ankle again this pre-season, and that leads me to believe he will miss half the year from ankle problems alone.

          9  Golden St. Warriors 
       It pains me to put the Timberwolves ahead of them but I think I gave a pretty good reason above. I really like lots of the Warriors players, but I think their season is going to rely on health. Bogut and Curry will miss games no matter what. I love Barnes and Thompson though. The GSW's future is bright. As a Jazz follower though, I cannot help but feel a little bitter about that shameless tank job at the end of the season. Part of me hopes they just blow it and Mark Jackson can't get them to win games. But I will admit, I'm a closet GS fan. I love the Bay area, and love their uniforms, and think their fans are pretty good.

       10  Portland Trailblazers 
      I have a huge fan crush on Damian Lillard. I got the same feeling watching him in the pre-season that I did when I watched Derrick Rose for the first time in the pro's, but unlike Rose, he is coming into the league with an outside shot. I like Aldridge and Batum as well.  I haven't seen any other rankings put the Blazers this high but I have a feeling they will surprise some people. They have a very nice core going forward, and I think they might actually have the loudest arena. At least it seems that way on TV. Don't be surprised if the Blazers manage to sneak into the playoffs as the 8th seed, or at least if they are competing for that spot come April.

          11 Dallas Mavericks 
       I have this feeling Dirk isn't going to be around much. They managed to salvage the off-season with some nice pickups, but I just don't see them putting anything together without Dirk and Terry.  Kaman is ok, Brand is ok, and Collison might be their best player, which is why I have them missing the playoffs this year.

             12  New Orleans 
      This all depends on Eric Gordon. They could actually make a run for the playoffs but like Golden St. and Mavericks, I think their reliance on Gordon might hurt them quite a bit if he's unhealthy.  I think Davis and Rivers will both be pretty good, with Davis probably being a star eventually. They have some nice pieces I think and are a year or two away from playoff position.

         13 Houston Rockets 
      They have some nice pieces, but in a stacked Western Conference they fall quite a ways. They drafted well and have some nice young talent, a good coach, and an above-average front office. Daryl Morey is one of the best. I'm excited to see how Lin turns out. Was he a flash in the pan or the real deal? Time will tell.

          14  Phoenix Suns 
      They almost fall here by default. I don't know what to think about them. The only thought I have, is why would you trade your best player to your division rival for 4 second round draft picks. If I was a die-hard Suns fan I might have a hard time forgiving that one. Time will tell with the Suns, but I don't see them competing for a playoff spot.

        15  Sacramento Kings 
      No offense SAC fans, but have you watched your team lately? Thomas Robinson and Aaron Brooks are good, but that's not gonna solve your problems. As a Jimmer fan, I'm rooting for Sacramento, but I just think their management has put together a roster that doesn't fit that well, and a coaching staff that seems over their heads.  Let me tell you what a non-Sacramento fan sees when he watches your games: Whoever has the ball looks for their shot until its not possible to get one off, then they pass it. Then it's that persons turn. Repeat cycle.  Sacramento has a ton of talent, but no system and no winning culture.